dow-uap-d48-report-september-1996.pdf

RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE
RTI

Contract No. FO4703-91-C-0112
RTI Report No. RTI/5180/77-43F
September 10, 1996

# Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations

Final Report

Prepared for

Department of the Air Force
45th Space Wing (AFSPC)
Safety Office - 45 SW/SE
Patrick AFB, FL 32925

and

19961025 122

Department of the Air Force
30th Space Wing (AFSPC)
Safety Office - 30 SW/SE
Vandenberg AFB, CA 93437

Distribution authorized to US Government agencies and their contractors to protect administrative/ operational use data, 10 September 96. Other requests for this document …

30SW-TR-96-12

Contract No. FO4703-91-C-0112
Task No. 10/95-77, Subtask 2.0

RTI Report No. RTI/5180/77-43F
September 10, 1996

# Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations

Final Report

Prepared by

James A. Ward, Jr.
Robert M. Montgomery

of

Research Triangle Institute
Center for Aerospace Technology
Launch Systems Safety Department

Prepared for

Department of the Air Force
45th Space Wing (AFSPC)
Safety Office - 45 SW/SE
Patrick AFB, FL 32925

and

Department of the Air Force
30th Space Wing (AFSPC)
Safety Office - 30 SW/SE
Vandenberg AFB, CA 93437

Distribution author…

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# Abstract

Missile and space-vehicle performance histories contain many examples of failures that cause, or have the potential to cause, significant vehicle deviations from the intended flight line. In RTI's risk-analysis program, DAMP, such failures are referred to as Mode-5 failure responses. Although Mode-5 failure responses are much less likely to occur than those that result in impacts near the flight line, risk-analysis studies are incomplete without them. This report shows how impacts from Mode-5 failures are modeled in program DAMP. The impact density function used for this purpose co…

# Table of Contents

1. Introduction...1
2. Examples Showing Need for Mode 5...3
3. Understanding the Mode-5 Failure Response...7
3.1 Effects of Mode-5 Shaping Constants...9
3.2 Effects of Shaping Constant on DAMP Results...9
4. Methodology for Assessing Failure Probabilities...13
4.1 The Parts-Analysis Approach...13
4.2 The Empirical Approach...15
5. Computation of Failure Probabilities...16
5.1 Overall Failure Probability...16
5.2 Relative and Absolute Probabilities for Response Modes...24
5.3 Relative Probability of Tumble for Response-Modes 3 and 4...30
6. Shaping Constants Through Simulat…

Appendix A. Failure Response Modes in Program DAMP 79

Appendix B. Shaping-Constant Effects on Mode-5 Impact Distributions 81

Appendix C. Filter Characteristics 90

Appendix D. Launch and Performance Histories 96

D.1 Basic Data 96

D.1.1 Data Sources 96
D.1.2 Assignment of Failure-Response Modes 98
D.1.3 Assignment of Flight Phase 98
D.1.4 Representative Configurations 100

D.2 Atlas Launch and Performance History 101

D.2.1 Atlas Launch History 103
D.2.2 Atlas Failure Narratives 115

D.3 Delta Launch and Performance History 133

D.3.1 Delta Launch History 136
D.3.2 Delta Failure Narratives …

# Table of Figures

Figure 1. Joust Impact Trace Showing a Mode-5 Failure Response...6
Figure 2. Atlas IIAS Risk Contours for Inner-Ear Injury with A = 3.0...11
Figure 3. Atlas IIAS Risk Contours for Inner-Ear Injury with A = 3.5...12
Figure 4. Filter Factor Results for Representative Configurations of Atlas...23
Figure 5. Combined Random-Attitude and Slow-Turn Results...36
Figure 6. Atlas IIAS Breakup Percentages for Random-Attitude Turns...37
Figure 7. Atlas IIAS Impacts with No Breakup...39
Figure 8. Atlas IIAS Impacts with Breakup...40
Figure 9. Atlas IIAS Simulation Results with B = 1,000…

Figure 31. LLV1 Simulation Results with Best-Fit Shaping Constants ... 71
Figure 32. f-Ratios for Ranges from 1 to 25 Miles ... 86
Figure 33. Percentage of Impacts Between Flight Line and Any Radial ... 87
Figure 34. Percentage of Impacts in 5-Degree Sectors ... 88
Figure 35. Exponential Weights for Fading-Memory Filters ... 93
Figure 36. Recursive Filter Factor for Last Data Point ... 94
Figure 37. Atlas Launch Summary ... 102
Figure 38. Delta Launch Summary ... 135
Figure 39. Titan Launch Summary ... 148
Figure 40. Thor Launch Summary ... 164

## Table of Tables

Table 1. Effects of Mode-5 S…